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Can we turn the tide?- The growing fears of a climate refugee crisis

In 2009, the Maldivian Government held their first ever underwater cabinet meeting. While, for many, the prospect of attending such a meeting sounds thoroughly enjoyable, this meeting was far from business as usual. The President, Mohamed Nasheed, wanted to use this uniquely captivating event to draw attention to the drastic situation of rising sea levels that anthropogenic climate change has brought upon the Maldives. In the meeting, Ministers are seen signing an SOS, imploring the nations of the world to cut their emissions. In a country where no area of land is more than 2.4 meters above sea level, there is evident and justified concern for the safety of the population’s livelihoods should climate change continue.

The case of the Maldives is just one example of many amidst growing concerns regarding the link between climate change and human migration. Influential figures including David Attenborough have warned that we are on the brink of witnessing the largest refugee crisis the world has seen; a refugee crisis driven by climate change and natural disaster events.  

In simple terms, climate refugees are those individuals who have been displaced due to the impacts of climate change or natural disasters. These two factors come hand in hand as the worsening impacts of climate change are causing ever more frequent and intense natural disasters, resulting in an increased number of displaced people. For many nations, principally Low Income Countries (LICs) in the global south these processes are already beginning to take hold. These countries are witnessing increased internal displacement of their citizens due to flooding and storms, such as the devastating Cyclone Idai which displaced almost 200,000 individuals within Mozambique. However, such displacement does not only emerge out of short term events like natural disasters, it also occurs as a result of long term climate impacts such as processes of desertification and drought. Both factors of internal displacement are just as negative as the other; they both cause long term disruption to people’s livelihoods within already impoverished nations.

The situations of such nations signal a greater threat that climate change poses regarding international migration. The same threatening processes are also taking place in areas which don’t have the option of internal displacement, like the Maldives. There has been growing concerns as to the kind of strain such extensive migration would entail for international relations. The Maldives has begun seeking allies on the West African coast that would accommodate their people should it be necessary. However, and perhaps more concerningly, is the extent of damage long-term impacts of climate change will have on International migration. The current migrant crisis taking place on the United State’s border with Mexico and the rest of Central America has in recent years been exacerbated by the effects of a changing climate. Historic deforestation in Belize has led to topsoil erosion and increased drought decimating the crops and livelihoods of up to 90% of Belize’s rural farmers within the region. With such events only likely to multiply and intensify, even the most far removed developed nations, such as the US, will be refused the luxury of turning a blind eye to such a crisis. A crisis, which I must add, has very much already begun.

There are those that disagree with the scaremongering of such an extensive global refugee crisis. However, their arguments do not present a more joyous scenario. Instead, they merely argue that because the target victims of such environmental impacts are often the most impoverished and vulnerable, they do not have the option of migrating towards a better livelihood. They become trapped in a cycle of poverty without access to resources which allow them to make the voluntary move. Thus they argue that the narrative of climate migration focussing primarily on the world’s poorest is inaccurate as they will have no means to better their situation. While this statement is perhaps true, it still points to the inevitable injustice of the climate crisis whether it be through migration or not. Those most vulnerable will be worst affected by the anthropogenic activity of the most affluent. 

In this way, climate equity is the most important factor to consider when discussing climate solutions. ‘Climate equity’ is the concept that everyone has a right to protection from the world environmental impacts and a right to access environmental benefits as more fortunate people have in the past. If the focus of climate discussions remains concentrated around this, the suffering of the most vulnerable, whether this be through displacement or other means, will be reduced and hopefully eventually end. We all have responsibility to ensure this happens.

Written by: Tilly Corcoran

DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS ARTICLE ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR ONLY AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE VIEWS OR OPINIONS OF COMPASS MAGAZINE AS A WHOLE OR THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY.

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